Saturday, August 2, 2008

:: armchair statistician ::

Check it... I am swimming in data. I haven't done any formal regression analysis yet but just by observing data I've noticed that on the days that I had significant weight loss... there was a distinct pattern in behavior observed:

- eating at home (Homecooked meals)
- exercising twice a day
- burning >700 calories
- diet across all days was either eating <1440 calories or the warrior diet

And because I didn't collect data from the very beginning, it's inconclusive whether or not the Warrior Diet is a factor yet. (Although initial research on another candidate has shown the warrior diet to be extremely promising)

Could my journey to winning short-term be just as straight forward as that? Here are more calculations...

Average weight loss on double workout/eat home days = 1.67 lbs
Number of days remaining with double workouts + eating at home = 10
Expected weight loss over next 2 weeks = 1.67 x 10 = 16.7 lbs
Expected weight at the end of competition = 179 - 16.7 lbs = 162.3 lbs
Percentage weight loss at the end of the competition = (200-162.3)/200 = 18.9%

It's going to be exciting to see how the next 2 weeks measure up to my initial theory! :)

p.s. This theory does not apply to everyone, especially the rate of change. But if someone else out there is doing something similar, please share your data!!!

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